Global renewable energy growth remains strong, but wind energy is facing increasing pressure due to higher costs, slow permitting, and weak supply chains. This is according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2025 report . While solar energy is leading the global expansion wave, the IEA expects wind capacity to nearly double by 2030. Europe, and thus the Netherlands, remains a leader but faces similar obstacles as other markets: higher costs, grid congestion, and tender delays.
Onshore wind: stable growth, but structural bottlenecks remain
The IEA expects global onshore wind capacity to grow by approximately 45% between 2025 and 2030, despite inflation and longer permitting processes. In Europe, onshore capacity is increasing primarily in Germany, Spain, and Turkey. The Netherlands is among the countries with a moderate but stable growth path: the IEA sees opportunities thanks to improved permitting procedures, but warns that congestion and slow grid expansion will limit progress.
The IEA emphasizes that Europe will only achieve its 2030 targets for onshore wind power with faster grid reinforcement, shorter waiting times for connection, and sufficient flexibility in the electricity system. For the Netherlands, this means that the combination of accelerated grid reinforcement, more hybrid connections, and space for battery storage will be decisive for integrating new wind farms.
Offshore wind: revised expectations, but a strategic driver for the energy transition
The IEA has revised its global growth forecast for offshore wind downwards by more than 25%, primarily due to project delays and higher financing costs in Europe, Japan, and the US. Nevertheless, global capacity is still expected to double by 2030, to approximately 140 GW. China accounts for half of that growth, but Europe remains the second-largest area.
In the European Union, growth is slowing primarily due to unfilled auctions, rising interest costs, and a lack of price certification, according to the IEA. The findings are particularly relevant for the Netherlands: the IEA specifically mentions the country as an example of delayed procurement, partly due to rising costs and uncertainty surrounding pricing mechanisms.
To achieve the REPowerEU target of 510 GW of wind by 2030 , the EU must implement five measures, according to the IEA:
- Higher auction volumes;
- Clear income security for developers;
- Greater system flexibility;
- Shorter permit terms;
- Faster network modernization.
These recommendations directly align with the Dutch discussion on structural tender revision and financing security for offshore projects.
Economic pressure in the supply chain
Wind turbine manufacturers remain loss-making, despite record installations. Outside of China, wind turbine manufacturers collectively lost $1.2 billion in 2024. The IEA highlights the need for healthier margins in the European value chain to prevent bankruptcies and maintain innovation.
For the Netherlands, this implies that industrial strategies such as local production of foundations and cables, and support for SME suppliers, become crucial to ensure security of supply and cost stability.
Broader perspective: The Netherlands in the European energy mix
The IEA expects the European Union to have over 1,612 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, of which approximately 1,123 GW will be in the EU-27 itself. This is 9% less than the REPowerEU targets. Solar energy is growing faster than expected, but the weak progress in offshore wind is making up the difference.
For the Netherlands, this means that the national share of wind energy, both onshore and offshore, is becoming strategically more important to offset the European shortfall. The IEA considers the Netherlands, along with Germany and the UK, a core market for system integration: countries that not only build wind power but also invest in storage, electrolysis, and cross-border grid connections.
Conclusion
The IEA analysis confirms that, despite uncertainties, the world will reach a new record pace of renewable energy in the next five years. For the Netherlands, the challenge lies not in building more wind farms, but in securing financing security, faster grid connections, and a robust value chain. Without these preconditions, wind energy, both onshore and offshore, risks remaining the engine of the energy transition, but no longer the accelerator.
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