Ember has explored how transatlantic interconnection could help both North America and Europe achieve a safer and more efficient transition to renewable electricity. Despite the high capital costs, it could be cheaper than other instruments being considered by policymakers, such as nuclear and hydrogen. As the world builds toward a clean energy future, Ember believes both North American and European governments should seriously consider this option.
"When its brutally cold in North America, it’s frequently mild in Europe and vice versa. Every winter and summer there will be opportunities to move electrons from mild weather systems to extreme weather systems instead of turning on the gas generators."
Principles
In the paper 'Security and efficiency: The case for connecting Europe and North America' Ember concludes that, in the quest for lower energy prices, security of supply and decarbonisation, the transatlantic interconnection could be a valuable tool. Despite the high capital costs, it could be cheaper than other instruments being considered by policymakers, such as nuclear and hydrogen. Ember calls for further investigation by decision-makers.
This paper posits two key trends that underpin the value and necessity of transatlantic interconnection.
First, electricity grids on both sides of the Atlantic will be largely carbon-free in the future. Much of northwestern Europe, the northeastern US and eastern Canada have mapped out scenarios and made commitments for near-zero carbon electricity within 20 years – many as early as 2035. Much of this carbon-free electricity will come from solar, wind and hydropower, which are affected by weather conditions.
Second, electricity demand will increase significantly over the next 10-20 years due to the electrification of transport, heating and industry, and increased electricity demand from data centres and air conditioning. It will also be increasingly affected by weather conditions: electricity demand will increase to power air conditioning, which is expected to be used more and more as the climate changes; demand for electricity will also increase on cold days as electric heating becomes available, and will increase proportionally as more homes switch from gas and oil to electric heating, especially efficient heat pumps.
The increased impact of weather events requires massive amounts of flexibility from the grid to match electricity supply and demand from hour to hour. This involves flexibility in both directions. Firstly, to avoid keeping the lights on and prices from rising when demand is high and supply is low. But also – and increasingly – to avoid massive waste (curtailment) of clean electricity when renewable supply is high and local demand is low.
Role of interconnection
Interconnection can help in both cases. By reducing price spikes, and ultimately the chance of lights out, and by reducing the need to curtail wind and solar generation when it’s windy and sunny. Unlike a transmission line, an interconnector goes both ways: if there’s a surplus on one side and a shortage on the other, electrons flow that way. If the surplus and shortage reverse, the current reverses.
Ember modeled more than a decade of weather data and found that there was significant potential for electrons generated by wind power to also flow back and forth between the continents. "A lot of it has to do with differences in peak demand on the two continents that occur on a daily basis. It also has a strong impact on the dunkelflaute conditions in northern Europe, when clouds cover everything, the wind barely moves and the depression sets in even deeper. When Europe is gloomy and calm, North America is usually not," writes energy expert Michael Barrnard in his article, 'HVDC Transmission Between Europe & North America Makes Fiscal Sense', which accompanies the Ember report.
"When its brutally cold in North America, it’s frequently mild in Europe and vice versa. Every winter and summer there will be opportunities to move electrons from mild weather systems to extreme weather systems instead of turning on the gas generators."
Impact of 6 hour time difference
The economic drivers for the Atlantic interconnection are largely determined by the complementarity of time zones and weather. Solar power will play a major role on both sides of the Atlantic. With a six-hour time difference between Paris and New York, the solar profiles will provide substantial arbitrage opportunities. Europe will have a surplus of electricity when the East Coast of North America wakes up, and in the afternoon America will have a surplus of electricity in the evening.
The length of the cable provides daily complementarity, as the daily peak demand is six hours apart. The six-hour shift means that the low demand at night from 22:00-04:00 coincides with France during New York's evening peak, and in New York when France is waking up.
Correlation wind
Ember analysed wind data from the past 10 years for three pairs of geographical points in Europe and North America. Among other things, it found that there is some evidence of a negative correlation for the windiest days on either side of the Atlantic - that is, when it is very windy in one location, it will be less windy in another. Only one day of the top 20 windiest days per year was the same between Europe and North America.
Looking at the daily wind speeds for January to March (which are usually the windiest months and also the coldest months), it is possible to see that the wind speeds are rarely high in both regions at the same time (above 12 m/s), or low at the same time (less than 6 m/s).
Ember states that further research is particularly recommended to understand the correlation of wind in more detail.
Decision making
A project of this magnitude will benefit the further development of the grids and can further optimize both renewable sources and variable demand. It can also provide significant local economic benefits, in particular through job creation. This will require strong government support, from financing to permitting.
Ember estimates that public decision makers will take action as they see increasing solar and wind curtailment, as well as rising prices during “Dunkelflaute,” or growing concerns about lights out.
Transatlantic interconnection will be particularly attractive as governments look to a future electric economy, with the electricity grid at the heart of the overall energy system – a scenario that is becoming increasingly likely.
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