Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exposed the high costs of dependence on fossil fuel imports, but the growth of renewable energy has helped prevent a worse crisis. An analysis by Ember shows that the growth of wind and solar energy has saved the EU €12 billion in avoided gas costs since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Numbers
Data research from Ember gives the following figures:
- 50 TWh: Increase in wind and solar energy generation since the start of the war
- €12 billion: Gas costs avoided due to growth in wind and solar energy
- 23%: Record share of wind and solar energy generation in the EU
Energy security under pressure
In the year since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU is under enormous pressure to limit risks to energy security and protect itself from the rising costs of fossil fuel imports. Gas prices shot up to an all-time high of 313 euros/MWh as Russia halted pipeline exports to the EU. As a result, the costs for producing electricity from gas amounted to more than 650 euros/MWh.
As coal prices also rose, the increased cost of fossil fuels drove up electricity prices and caused escalating inflation and a cost of living crisis in Europe. The volatility made it even more urgent to transition away from fossil fuels for electricity generation in the EU. Wind and solar energy have played a crucial role in achieving the goal of reducing dependence on Russian gas. Even before the full impact of the newly announced policy took effect.
Record amount of electricity from wind and sun
Boosted by growing capacity and favorable weather conditions, wind and solar power have produced record amounts of electricity in the EU since the start of the war. Their combined production amounted to 546 TWh, an increase of 50 TWh (+10%) compared to the same period in 2021-22. In total, wind and solar power have accounted for 23% of total EU production since the start of the war, overtaking gas power's share of 19% for the first time.
Record wind and solar production has enabled the EU to cope with difficult conditions in the energy sector. In addition to the rush to replace Russian gas, nuclear and hydropower generation across the EU suffered significant shortages last year due to drought and factory closures. This left a large gap in generation, much of which was met by wind and solar power, and a drop in demand as fossil fuel prices rose.
Savings through avoided gas imports
With more than a fifth of the EU's electricity currently coming from wind and solar energy, progress towards a clean energy system has helped prevent an even worse crisis. The 50 TWh annual increase in wind and solar energy alone reduced the amount of gas required for electricity generation by 90 TWh (9 bcm) and avoided gas costs of €12 billion, based on the average TTF day-ahead price for the period. Without the total 546 TWh of wind and solar energy, the EU would have needed an additional 993 TWh (94 billion cubic meters) of gas to meet electricity demand since the start of the war. In total, this concerns gas costs of 135 billion euros.
The EU has imported 330 billion cubic meters of gas since the start of the war, of which 54 billion cubic meters (16%) came from Russia. Although total gas imports fell by only 5% (19 billion cubic meters) compared to the same period in the previous year, Russian imports fell by 60% (82 billion cubic meters). Before the invasion of Ukraine, the EU depended on Russia for about 40% of its gas imports. This has fallen sharply to 16%.
Faster towards energy independence
Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the EU's attitude towards the use of fossil fuels for electricity. In response to the war, EU governments have identified fossil fuels as a threat to national security, energy affordability and climate goals. The solution for all three: build more clean energy faster.
Most European countries increased their renewable electricity ambitions in response to the crisis, announcing higher targets, shorter project timelines and supportive policies. Now that the war continues, the pursuit of a higher share of wind and solar energy is more crucial than ever. Only in this way can Europe displace fossil fuels to achieve sustainable energy security and permanent energy independence from Russia.
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